TJ Ryan Foundation Research Associate, Chris Salisbury, writes in The Conversation (17.2.20) about the Queensland election due in October this year, and the internal wrangles distracting both the Labor government and the LNP opposition.
'With cries of “Quexit!” still echoing faintly in our ears, Queenslanders head towards a state election in October.
'For many, interest lies in whether federal Labor’s poor showing in Queensland at last year’s national election was a portent for the state Labor government. While there’s plenty at stake locally, recent National Party disunity and federal Coalition turmoil could also have a pronounced influence on Queensland’s election year.
'Interestingly, latest polling figures put Annastacia Palaszczuk’s government and the Liberal National Party opposition neck and neck. After a turbulent last six months for Palaszczuk, questions are being raised about a lack of “cut-through” by LNP leader Deb Frecklington. Underlying it all is apparently growing voter indifference to both. Their leaderships will undergo a litmus test at a coming Gold Coast by-election on March 28.
'… Anything less than a convincing by-election result will heighten pressure on Frecklington’s leadership, with whispers emerging of a desire for change at the top. A messy leadership swap would again expose an uneasy relationship between the LNP’s constituent Nationals and Liberals, and repeat the party’s tendency to electorally self-implode.'
The numbers say Labor can't win. The calendar says they still have an outside chance
Dennis Atkins writes in InQueensland (9.6.20) about opinion polling which, while giving the LNP the front running in this year's election contest, might not give the full picture.
'There’s no way the Palaszczuk Government can win the October 31 election with only 32 per cent of the primary vote.
'In fact, Labor would be flat out getting close with the 35.2 per cent of the primary vote the party managed in 2017.
'This makes the weekend YouGov poll in The Sunday Mail look like a harbinger of doom for a Premier who is dreaming of a third election win – a victory that would take her past Peter Beattie and Wayne Goss as a long-serving Labor leader.
'... Does this mean the election is all but over? Should we just sit back and wait for the LNP’s Deb Frecklington to emerge victorious in just over four-and-a-half months?
'There are many reasons this would be unwise at the moment.'