Tim Colebatch writes in Inside Story (3.7.16) about the inconclusive result from the federal election, and crunches the poll numbers to determine what we know so far about the likely post-election scene.
‘Most of us now know who our new MPs will be. What we don’t know is who will be our prime minister. And we don’t know whether there will be a majority or minority government. Indeed, we don’t even know whether there will be a government at all.
‘The election has turned out much as I forecast on Friday, but even I didn’t expect it to be this close. Moreover, it took a sudden turn last night, after we went to bed, when counting into the small hours significantly changed the numbers in key Victorian seats.
‘… In other words, the Coalition would need to win eight of the ten seats still undecided to form a majority government. That’s a big ask. Labor can’t win majority government even if everything breaks its way. Malcolm Turnbull has, at best, a fify-fifty chance of obtaining the majority government he told us he had won.’