« Back to Publications

A long campaign, a long wait… and then what?

Tim Colebatch writes in Inside Story (3.7.16) about the inconclusive result from the federal election, and crunches the poll numbers to determine what we know so far about the likely post-election scene.

‘Most of us now know who our new MPs will be. What we don’t know is who will be our prime minister. And we don’t know whether there will be a majority or minority government. Indeed, we don’t even know whether there will be a government at all.

‘The election has turned out much as I forecast on Friday, but even I didn’t expect it to be this close. Moreover, it took a sudden turn last night, after we went to bed, when counting into the small hours significantly changed the numbers in key Victorian seats.

‘… In other words, the Coalition would need to win eight of the ten seats still undecided to form a majority government. That’s a big ask. Labor can’t win majority government even if everything breaks its way. Malcolm Turnbull has, at best, a fify-fifty chance of obtaining the majority government he told us he had won.’

The TJRyan Foundation does not guarantee the accuracy, currency or completeness of any information or material available on this website. The TJRyan Foundation reserves the right to change information or material on this website at any time without notice. Links from this site to external, non-TJRyan Foundation websites should not be construed as implying any relationship with and/or endorsement of the external site or its content by the TJR Foundation, nor any commercial relationship with the owners of any external site. Should any TJRyan research project be funded by an individual or organisation the source of funding will be stated beside the research report. In all other cases contributions are provided on a pro bono basis.
Receive the latest news

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

Get notified about new articles

This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.