Several experts contribute analysis to The Conversation (10.7.16) of the election-defining issues and battleground seats in Australia’s states and territories, including Anne Tiernan commenting on key elements of the federal election campaign in Queensland.
‘The overall result in Queensland, which was predicted to go badly for the government, still hangs in the balance. The seats of Capricornia, Flynn and Herbert are still too close to call.
‘The Coalition has done well to retain Petrie and Bonner. Trevor Evans, who will replace retiring MP Teresa Gambaro in Brisbane, also achieved an increased margin, recording a swing to the government of 1.6% on a two-party-preferred basis.
‘Everywhere else, the two-party-preferred swings against the Coalition ranged from 0.4% in the safe seat of Fisher to 8% in Longman, which was enough to unseat Assistant Innovation Minister and Turnbull supporter Wyatt Roy.
‘At one level this was unsurprising. A correction was inevitable after Labor’s poor showing in 2013. The statewide swing to Labor was 1.6% on primary votes, but aside from the seats still in doubt, it comfortably retained Blair, Oxley, Rankin and Lilley.’