2017 Queensland state election

Queensland election campaign, week 1: with commentary by Roger Scott

The Queensland election has generatied plenty of commentary. The purpose of this column is to gather together the most significant articles from this wide range of sources. 

The first week of the election campaign was an odd mixture of very specific pork-barrel promises and generic environmental concerns such as the clear differentiation between the parties over tree-clearing and the shifting sands on the Adani mine.

Pauline Hanson’s absence in India did not remove the topic of One Nation from consideration by the major parties and closer examination of the contrasts between One Nation candidates in their attitudes to climate change. John Wanna’s relocation from the ANU to Griffith University has added to the already heavy engagement by that university with state policy and public sector analysis.

Queensland is getting some coverage in the national media but the reverse is not true – the chaos in Canberra has not (yet) been mentioned on the hustings.

• ‘Now we are n the trenches’: Queensland Labor and LNP face One Nation threat » – ‘Party insiders confess they don’t foresee either side getting a majority in the state election, which could leave One Nation as kingmakers.’
• One Nation and preference rules make this Queensland election hard to predict » – ‘There’s been a redistribution, a voting change, MP defections and a shift to One Nation since Queensland’s last poll.’
• Where the 2017 Queensland election will be won and lost » – ‘Despite a rocky spell in office, Labor heads into a short campaign favoured to win the most seats. But all eyes are on One Nation’s support and the flow of preferences.’
• John Wanna: ‘Why is One Nation so keen on a ‘Pre-Nup’ in Queensland?’ » – ‘Many voters will praise Dickson for being so up-front with his demands, but others will question the wisdom of laying out all your demands so far ahead and prior to the election itself.’
• Timeline on the rise of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation » – ABC timeline on the rise of One Nation.
• Graeme Orr: ‘Process eclipses policy’ » – ‘You could blame Campbell Newman’s bulldozer for the inertia in Queensland, if only the triumph of process wasn’t a problem elsewhere as well.’
• Roger Scott: ‘Personalities and millstones in Queensland’ » – ‘Personalities are increasingly significant in political contests, particularly as voters in all countries are abandoning the dominant parties. Politics in most Australian states are firmly controlled by capital city interests. Queensland has been slightly different, in this as in so many other ways.’
• Charts show Tim Nicholls’ biggest liability could be himself » – Chart shows Tim Nicholls is the most unpopular Queensland opposition leader in six years.
• Queensland LNP vow ‘sweeping’ youth crime crackdown in breach of UN rules » – Law and order, vote-catching promises not addressing root causes.
• Criminologist pours cold water on LNP’s Townsville youth justice plan » – ‘Political theatre’: curfews don’t actually prevent crime – they just move it.

Queensland election campaign, week 2

The second week of the election campaign has seen big-spending promises from the major parties, and a decidedly regional (and economic) focus as party leaders take the campaign trail to the furthest corners of the state.

• John Quiggin: LNP needs to slash public service to pay for Queensland election pledges » – John Quiggin suggests that Queensland’s public service would likely be cut by an incoming Nicholls government to cover LNP campaign promises.
• If Queenslanders vote on economic issues the Labor government is looking good » – ‘The Palaszczuk government has achieved better economic outcomes than the last two Queensland governments.’
• Queensland election set to scupper billions in GST relief for WA » – Hanson’s shifting loyalties, GST carve-ups and echoes of Western Australian election promises.
• Adani should not get loan: Queensland voter poll » – ‘Most Queenslanders believe the state should block any taxpayer-funded loan to Indian mining giant Adani, a poll suggests.’
• ‘Adani is a vote changer’: Greens muscle in on Queensland’s marginal seats » – ‘As the Greens home in on three electorates, the party says a Greens MP could play a pivotal role in a hung parliament where One Nation has leached away major-party votes.’
• Politics podcast: swinging into the Sunshine State’s election » – ‘The pundits are reluctant to place bets on who will win Queensland’s November 25 election. Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk and Opposition Leader Tim Nicholls both carry a good deal of baggage.’
• What’s your plan? Analysing the opening moves of the election campaign » – ‘The policies put forward during an election campaign are crucial to any party’s ambitions for electoral success.’
• LNP puts Greens last, One Nation ahead of Labor on how-to-vote cards » – ‘The LNP will put the Greens last on its how-to-vote cards for the state election and also preference One Nation over Labor in a majority of seats where all three parties have candidates.’
• LNP faces a poll shocker in Coast seats and elsewhere » – ‘The LNP is in big trouble with two weeks to run in the Queensland election campaign with its only chance of government a coalition or deal of some sort with One Nation, internal polling from both sides of politics suggests.’
• Departure of elders leaves LNP ‘vulnerable’ to One Nation » – ‘The retirement of three party elders from the LNP at the upcoming election has left their seats “vulnerable” to One Nation, a leading Queensland political scientist has warned.’

Queensland election campaign, week 3

The third week of the election campaign sees the major parties affirming their commitments to regional jobs and big-ticket projects, as questions over the Adani mine project continue to bubble away while new polling shows One Nation’s support holding firm among ‘disaffected’ voters in regional seats.

• Annastacia Palaszczuk affirms regional Queensland job focus » – ‘Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has hit back at accusations she’s put her job above those of regional Queenslanders by opting to veto a loan to Adani, as decisions around the mega-mine continue to cause headaches for her re-election bid.’
• Why big projects like the Adani coal mine won’t transform regional Queensland » – ‘Queensland election campaigns often focus on big projects for the regions, such as roads, power plants and mines. But research suggests that mega projects, such as in gas and coal, have not transformed skills or improved employment prospects in regional Queensland.’
• Adani aside, North Queensland voters care about crime and cost of living » – ‘Major voter concerns for North Queensland reflect the expectations that minor party preferences will determine the election outcome.’
• Queensland’s LNP doesn’t get that public enterprises generate income » – ‘The current Queensland election is the first in many years in which the sale of public assets is not an issue. All parties have ruled them out. The reason is obvious enough: in the last three elections, Queenslanders have demonstrated their overwhelming opposition to privatisation.’
• Rise of One Nation thickens the plot in Queensland election » – ‘Recent polling suggests the party will make a big impact, but the number of seats it could win hinges on a broad mix of factors.’
• With One Nation on the march, a change to compulsory voting might backfire on Labor » – ‘The real reason for Labor’s return to full preferential voting was to assist them in garnering preferences from the Greens – but it may end up strengthening the LNP.’
• Interesting, inconsistent and unpredictable: the preference battle » – ‘As election day in Queensland draws closer, it is clear that preferences are likely to play a significant role in the outcome, for at least two reasons: the reintroduction of compulsory preferential voting or CPV, and the almost inexorable rise in popularity of some smaller parties such as Pauline Hanson’s One Nation.’
• Queensland election: One Nation question dogs LNP in leaders’ debate » – ‘Queensland premier Annastacia Palaszczuk said the LNP forming an alliance with One Nation to take government would be an “embarrassment…to the world”.’
• Experts lament the lack of vision in Queensland election campaign » – ‘Queensland’s 2017 election campaign issues were old-fashioned and lacked a vision for the future, two experts on sustainability and politics have lamented.’
• Roger Scott on Week 3 of the Queensland election campaign » – ‘If Adani was the biggest millstone for Palaszczuk, One Nation and its threat to sensible behaviour in government is the much bigger millstone in the third week, this time borne by the LNP.’

Queensland election campaign, week 4

The fourth and final week of the election campaign kicked off with both major parties staging relatively low-key campaign launches to pitch their last-ditch messages to voters, which focused mainly on conventional issues such as jobs and the economy. Meanwhile, the ever-present ‘threat’ of the One Nation protest vote has continued to shadow both the Premier and Opposition Leader, as has the persistent question of government funding for the Adani mine project.

• Labor punches out election launch as campaign hits final stretch » – ‘Chaos or stability – that is the choice Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has pitched to the party faithful, as the fight to win the election hits its final week.’
• Queensland a state ‘crying out for leadership’: Nicholls » – ‘Opposition Leader Tim Nicholls said frustrated Queenslanders were crying out for leadership and promised to deliver a commonsense government.’
• There will never be zero debt in Queensland, Treasurer Curtis Pitt says » – ‘Queensland will never be in a position to have no debt on the books, Labor Treasurer Curtis Pitt says.’
• Two perspectives on Queensland’s debt » – ‘According to projections of the Queensland Treasury, non-financial public sector debt will grow to $81B by 2020–21. Is this a reason to be alarmed? Probably not. In fact, alarmism is the only real danger here, as it could lead to the adoption of policies at odds with the greater goal of achieving inclusive prosperity.’
• Fact check: Did Queensland see its largest fall in jobs on record last year? » – ‘Unemployment is shaping up as a key issue in the Queensland election campaign. The State Opposition is keen to portray Labor as a party of economic wreckers “costing Queenslanders jobs and opportunity”.’
• FactCheck: has Queensland Labor created ‘more than four times’ as many jobs as the LNP? » – ‘With unemployment in Queensland running above the national average – more than double the national average in some parts of the state – promises and claims about jobs growth are front and centre of the Labor Party campaign.’
• Giles Parkinson: LNP, One Nation would force Queensland energy prices up; Greens, ALP down » – ‘Energy has emerged as one of the key factors in the Queensland poll, which is proving impossible to predict because of the rise of One Nation, and the potential of both the Katter Party and The Greens to grab some seats.’
• Public investment in electricity generation – a hot-button issue in Queensland? » – ‘In the upcoming state election all major parties are talking up public investment in energy generation. But are these policies paying heed to climate science?’
• Infographic: here’s exactly what Adani’s Carmichael mine means for Queensland » – ‘One of the biggest [election] issues is the controversial Carmichael coal mine proposed by Indian mining giant Adani. Here’s what it means for Queensland, Australia and the world if the mine goes ahead.’
• Fact check: Did Infrastructure Australia say Queensland’s Cross River Rail project is not needed until 2036? » – ‘One of the [One Nation] party’s major policies is to push for the axing of Brisbane’s Cross River Rail project, while earmarking the money set aside for the project for other initiatives elsewhere in the state.’
• Roger Scott: Carpet-baggers and sand-baggers » – ‘The LNP is in trouble [in inner Brisbane] and elsewhere because of its willingness to contemplate working in government with One Nation, which is visualised as rampant outside Brisbane and threatening the LNP’s hold on seats as close as Brisbane’s outer-suburbs and as far away as Cairns.’
• LNP and Labor at pains to pitch to potential One Nation supporters » – ‘Both major party leaders are focusing their campaigns on potential One Nation voters in the last week of the campaign, as the minor party leader grabs attention with a baby announcement.’
• John Wanna: Senate shenanigans – will cross-bench problems affect One Nation in #qldvotes? » – ‘With just under a week left to run in this Queensland state election, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation have mounted a challenge to the major parties, especially in regional Queensland and outer-metropolitan seats skirting Brisbane to the north, west and south-east.’
• One Nation to win six seats in state’s regions and Greens one: John Wanna » – ‘One Nation could win six seats in regional Queensland in 2017, harking back to 1998 when it won 11 seats with 23 per cent of the vote, Australian National University Professor John Wanna predicts.’
• A tale of two Queenslands … and of One Nation » – ‘Saturday’s election is the tale of two Queenslands and two leaders struggling to convince a wary electorate that they have a vision beyond tomorrow.’
• Rural towns say they feel ‘abandoned’, will vote for minor parties » – ‘People in country Queensland say they feel forgotten by many of the state’s politicians, so they’ll be voting for minor party candidates in the upcoming elections, in the hope it will give them better representation in Parliament.’
• Breaking down the big promises from Labor and the LNP » – ‘Here are the biggest announcements the major parties have made on the campaign so far. Check back in on this list as more promises are made.’
• Labor to increase taxes on luxury cars, large properties and online bets » – ‘Queensland Labor would raise more cash to deliver on its promises by increasing taxes on the rich. Treasurer Curtis Pitt said Labor’s revenue measures would not impact on about 99 per cent of Queenslanders.’
• LNP takes from Cross River Rail to fund election commitments » – ‘The LNP will redirect funds from Cross River Rail and other Labor projects to pay for its election commitments, shadow treasurer Scott Emerson said on Thursday as he released his party’s election costings.’
• Experts say LNP’s power station plan not viable, would raise prices » – ‘The LNP’s election pledge for a new coal-fired power station in north Queensland is akin to an idea conceived by “guys in a bar who have had too much to drink”, a former power company executive has said.’
• Public servants fear axe in LNP-held SEQ seats, as election nears » – ‘Public servants still remember the 14,000 sacked by the LNP, five years on. … Despite assurances by Opposition Leader Tim Nicholls, public servants are still nervous.’
• Deal-breaker issues the minor parties will demand » – ‘Both major parties have been pleading for voters to return a majority government, but there’s a real chance Queensland will have a hung parliament. In that situation, Labor’s Annastacia Palaszczuk or the LNP’s Tim Nicholls would need to secure the backing of minority parties to rule.’
• Could Pauline Hanson’s One Nation hold the balance of power in Queensland? » – ‘In this tight election, One Nation is thought a chance to hold the balance of power, despite having little likelihood of gaining more than a few seats’
• The dispiriting Queensland election campaign is a perfect example of Australia’s shrinking political ambition » – ‘The Queensland election is a choice between a Brisbane rail tunnel and a North Queensland power plant and dams. That’s about it, really.’
• An extraordinary vote in Queensland » – ‘As Saturday dawned, the Queensland election seemed on a knife-edge. As midnight came, the knife-edge remained sharp, and pointing upwards.’