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Herbert cliffhanger: why Queensland marginals hold the key to Labor’s fate in 2019

With the Electoral Commission’s vote recount continuing in the north Queensland seat of Herbert, and amid startling claims of Attorney General George Brandis crossing quasi-judicial boundaries and participating in the vote scrutineering, Ben Raue explains in The Guardian (17.7.16) how marginal Queensland seats will play an even bigger role at the next federal election.

‘Queensland plays a key role in every federal election. Out of the 30 seats in the state, up to 10 were in play in 2016.

‘While Labor gained substantial swings in many Queensland seats, and came close to winning at least five, they appear to have only won a single seat in the northern state, with the possibility of a second seat in late counting.

‘Labor gained large swings in many seats but these swings were mostly not in the seats that were most marginal, with Labor falling short in the two Queensland seats that were the most marginal Coalition seats in the country.

‘… It was hard to imagine before now but these marginal seats in central Queensland may be even more crucial to the result in 2019.’

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